Hrant Bagratian, the former Prime Minister under Levon Ter-Petrosian who is most well known as being the architect of Armenia’s free-market reforms and its disastrous economic transition, was recently quoted as saying, “The opening of the Turkish border means an end to monopolies. This is a significant step.” He argues that the Armenia-Turkey protocols pose a threat to the oligarchs in Armenia since opening up for business with Turkey will supposedly challenge their domination of the Armenian economy.

This same sentiment was shared by Richard Giragosian, director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies, who recently stated, “It’s going to introduce a healthy dose of competition and larger markets within the closed Armenian economy. It will specifically threaten the oligarchs, the commodity-based cartels that are so strongly entrenched in Armenia.”

Are we really to believe that these oligarchs, dominant in all aspects of Armenia’s decision-making, are preparing to commit economic and political suicide by signing on to the protocols? Are they really going against the will of the majority of the Armenian people and against their own pocket books by supporting the protocols? What could they be thinking?

If the two analysts above were correct in their assessment, wouldn’t any sane person expect some level of opposition expressed by this immensely powerful elite in Armenia?

In fact, the reality is quite the opposite from the views expressed above. The oligarchs in Armenia largely stake their claim on importing basic commodities into the country, such as oil, gas, butter, wheat, sugar, cement, etc. Their riches have very little to do with domestic production for export or local industry. Indeed, this oligarchic economy is part of the reason a little under half of Armenia’s GDP is made up of imports, while only about 10% is accounted for by exports.

The oligarchic elite stands to benefit from cheaper imports through the opening of the Turkish border. At the same time, their dominance in the Armenian economy is not likely to be challenged by foreign entities as long as they continue to hold the reigns of political and economic power in the country. This might be the reason why they not only do not oppose the protocols, they are openly  in support of them.

Unfortunately, the average small businessman, worker, or farmer in Armenia is not likely to be as fortunate.